NATO StratCom COE and Repsense Study Identifies Russia’s Propaganda Weak Spot: The First 18 Hours

VILNIUS, Lithuania, Sept. 08, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Narrative intelligence company Repsense today shared "Crisis, Control, Crusade: Russia's Propaganda Architecture", a new study produced by the NATO Strategic Communications Centre of Excellence, which Repsense was commissioned to carry out together with political science researchers. The study concludes that when an unexpected crisis hits Russia, its propaganda system spends hours out of sync – and that the first 18 hours are its most vulnerable phase.

One of the most comprehensive assessments of Russia's disinformation system to date, the study analysed about 3.13 million Russian media and social network items over 15 months across state websites, television and social media. Every crisis examined was processed in the same order, making the system's behaviour predictable.

"Most studies of Russia's information space examine the content of its propaganda. This study answers a different question – how it works," said Mykolas Katkus, CEO of Repsense and one of the study's authors. "It works on a schedule: while the Kremlin takes on average 18 hours to agree an official position, the information space is left without an owner. For the West, the speed of a response matters more than its completeness."

The clearest demonstration came on 6 August 2024, when Ukrainian forces crossed into Russia's Kursk region. For seven hours, Russian state media said nothing. A coordinated Kremlin position took 18 hours to emerge; inside that window, the story was told not by the state but by Telegram channels and military bloggers testing competing explanations. Once the Kremlin's version was agreed, it was repeated simultaneously by state websites, television and Telegram, then reframed as part of a larger struggle.

The researchers call this three-phase sequence the 3C model: Crisis, Control, Crusade. In Crisis, competing versions circulate; in Control, one version wins and is repeated everywhere at once; in Crusade, the event is absorbed into a larger ideological fight with the West.

"The system's weakest point is the transition from chaos to control – until it happens, informational interventions and fact-based explanations of the event are still possible," said Dr. Nerijus Maliukevičius of Vilnius University's Institute of International Relations and Political Science.

The primary audience, the researchers conclude, is Russia's own population: the goal is mobilising Russian citizens, not persuading foreign audiences.

The study covers 1 January 2024 to 31 March 2025. The full 194-page report is available at stratcomcoe.org

About Repsense

Repsense is a narrative intelligence technology company building solutions for reputation management, disinformation studies and public-sphere analysis. Its platform processes thousands of sources in real time, helping businesses and the public sector understand prevailing trends, identify communication risks and measure their impact in the information space. More information: repsense.io.

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Monika Tamulaitytė
Head of Communications
monika.t@repsense.io